据今日油价7月1日报道，挪威能源咨询公司DNV GL在一份新报告中表示，全球能源需求很可能在2019年已经见顶，二氧化碳排放量也可能达到了峰值。

该咨询公司称，未来30年，世界能源需求实际上将下降，到2050年，需求将处于2018年的水平。报告的作者Sverre Alvik和Mark Irvine写道，造成这种情况的原因可能是冠状病毒大流行的持久影响和能源强度的显著改善。

顾问们表示:“疫情的持续影响将使世界经济在许多年内失去动力，与疫情爆发前相比，2050年世界GDP将下降9%。然而，即使增长放缓，到本世纪中叶，世界经济规模仍将是今天的两倍。不过，能源需求将不会增长。”

总的来说，这些趋势对石油的影响将是负面的，未来十年，天然气将取代石油成为使用最多的能源。此外，由于可再生能源的低运营成本和快速周转时间，投资者可能会开始更加关注可再生能源。DNV GL表示，可再生能源方面的支出将比石油和天然气方面的支出恢复得更快。

好消息是，碳排放量在2019年可能已经达到峰值。坏消息是，排放量的进一步下降将不足以达到《巴黎协定》的目标。

Alvik和Irvine写道:“即使排放峰值已经过去，能源需求也会在2050年前保持平稳，但我们预测的能源转型速度仍远不足以实现巴黎的目标，即将全球变暖幅度远低于工业革命前水平的2摄氏度。要达到1.5摄氏度的目标，从现在开始，我们需要每年重复在2020年经历的下降。”

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND TO DECLINE THROUGH 2050

Global energy demand may well have peaked last year, and the same may be true for carbon dioxide emissions, Norwegian energy consultancy DNV GL said in a new report.

According to the consultancy, over the next three decades, the world’s energy demand will actually decline, and in 2050 demand will be on a level with what it was in 2018. The reasons for this would be the lasting effect of the coronavirus pandemic and significant improvements in energy intensity, the report’s authors, Sverre Alvik and Mark Irvine, wrote.

“The lingering effects of the pandemic will take the wind out of the sails of the world economy for many years – reducing World GDP in 2050 by 9%, relative to pre-pandemic forecasts,” the consultants said. “Even with slower growth, however, by mid-century the world economy will still be twice its size today. In contrast, energy demand will not grow.”

The effects of these trends on oil will be negative as a whole, with natural gas taking over from it as the most used energy source in the next decade. What’s more, investors may start paying even more attention to renewables, thanks to their low operating costs and fast turnaround times. As a result, DNV GL said, spending on renewables will recover more quickly than spending on oil and gas.

As regards emissions, the good news is that they probably peaked last year. The bad news is that further declines in emissions will not be large enough to be in line with the Paris Agreement goals.

“Even with peak emissions behind us, and flat energy demand through to 2050, the energy transition we forecast is still nowhere near fast enough to deliver the Paris ambition of keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,” Alvik and Irvine wrote. “To reach 1.5-degree target, we would need to repeat the decline we’re experiencing in 2020 every year from now on.”
来源：中国石化新闻网